Free webcast – Is there hope for solar?

Examining the prospects for scaling up solar energy

Live Webcast July 14 ~1 PM Eastern, 10 AM Pacific

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The sun is the primary source of energy in our solar system, yet most of the power running through our electric grid here on earth does not come from solar energy. It comes from a multitude of other, often environmentally harmful sources.

Solar power currently generates less than 1% of the electricity used in the United States. Will solar provide a greater share of our energy in the future? Should it? If so, how will we reach that point?

The Energy Collective presents this webcasts to explore the prospects for solar, discuss which forms of solar power have the most potential, and compare the costs and benefits of solar to other forms of energy.
In addition to any questions you may ask our panelists live during the webinar, we'll ask:

• What, if anything, should be done to drive up solar's share of our energy burden?
• Which form of solar power has the most potential? Rooftop panels? Photovoltaic arrays? Concentrated solar thermal power?
• Solar energy is more to costly to produce than many other forms of energy. What's the best hope of bringing those costs down?

Featuring:

Marc Gunther, a writer, speaker and consultant, who focuses on business and the environment. He worked for 12 years as a senior writer at FORTUNE magazine, where he is now a contributing editor. His most recent book, “Faith and Fortune: How Compassionate Capitalism is Transforming American Business,” was published by Crown in 2004. A graduate of Yale, he lives in Bethesda, MD.

Osha Gray Davidson, an investigative reporter who has been covering environmental issues for twenty-five years, with work appearing in Grist, The New York Times, Mother Jones, Rolling Stone, Popular Science and others. Davidson is currently the energy correspondent for OnEarth magazine and edits the blog he founded, The Phoenix Sun, which focuses on solar power and renewable energy.

Michael Jungreis, Business Development Manager for Siemens Concentrated Solar Power Ltd. Michael's responsibilities include business development of the utility scale solar thermal markets in the US, India and Australia. Michael comes to Siemens from the Israeli solar-power company, Solel Solar Systems, which was acquired by Siemens in 2009. Michael also served as Executive Director of the Israel Jordan Chamber of Commerce from 1999-2002 and as head of the Middle Eastern desk at the Israeli Ministry of Finance from 1997-1999.

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Is Asia rising to dominate the global nuclear industry?

A series of headlines reveals strong competition between Japan and South Korea for market share

The Wall Street Journal reports July 6 that Japan is aligning its nuclear industry to support exports of nuclear reactors and to respond to the competitive threat from South Korea. Six companies are working under the umbrella of a government backed effort through the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

The Wall Street Journal reports June 29 that the first evidence of government support appeared when Japan and India began negotiations to ink a civilian nuclear energy pact. The talks reportedly kicked off between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan (right) during the G 20 meeting held in Toronto in June.

India plans to add 20 GWe of nuclear generating capacity over the next two decades. So far Japan hasn’t had any of the early action with India. Four new reactors to be built by the Russians and two more by Areva. Neither Westinghouse nor GE Hitachi have signed deals to build new reactors for India. However, GE Hitachi has signed a deal with Indian heavy manufacturing firms to develop a factory to build reactor components for domestic use and export.

The WSJ reports that Japan’s Kan has an economic growth strategy that relies on more exports of heavy industry projects. Japan is feeling the heat of competition from South Korea which inked a $20 billion contract last December to build four reactors in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The firms involved in the Japanese initiative include three nuclear energy utilities with deep operation experience and three firms that manufacture reactors components and build power plants. They are Tokyo Electric Power, Chubu Electric Power, Kansai Electric Power, Toshiba, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

There is stiff competition for Japan’s export drive from South Korea. Bloomberg wire service reported June 30 that Doosan Heavy Industries won a $3.9 billion order to supply nuclear reactors, turbines, and related components to Korea Electric Power, which won the UAE contract.

Japan is focusing its nuclear energy marketing efforts on Vietnam which recently announced plans to build 13 new reactors by 2030 and inked a deal with Russia for the first two units.

Japan has been training nuclear engineers from Vietnam to help that country with its energy strategy. World Nuclear News reported July 6 that Japan is providing technical assistance to Vietnam’s Agency for Radiation and Nuclear Safety.

Small reactors in the mix

According to a May 4 report in the Straits Times, Malaysia is looking into acquiring small reactors to meet its energy needs. Its short list of sources leads with South Korea.

Seoul's Ministry of Education, Science and Technology said June 14 that a consortium led by Korea Electric Power Corp. will inject $82 million into a project to complete design work and technical verification of the system integrated modular advanced reactors ( SMARTs).

The project is organized by the state-run Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. SMART is a pressurized water reactor, designed to generate up to 100 MWe for thermal applications such as seawater desalination.

China to shift builds to local sources

China is planning to increase its nuclear energy generating capacity from the current level of 9 GWe to 70 GWe by 2020. This investment in energy infrastructure will boost nuclear energy as a carbon emission free source of electricity from 1% of the nation’s power to 5% of its energy supply.

Map of China’s civilian nuclear projects

(Image via World Nuclear News)

China is building four new reactors with technology from Toshiba’s Westinghouse. The WSJ reports that new deals are being negotiated to build six more reactors. UPI reports July 6 that the plants will be located in Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi inland provinces.

However, the WSJ reports June 28 that China’s extraordinary drive to build new reactors is being hampered by a lack of trained nuclear engineers. The newspaper said projects could falter as managers learn to deal with the complexities of building reactors and there is a risk of accidents during construction.

Despite these challenges, the WSJ reported that banker Credit Suisse projects that the Chinese nuclear market will increasingly be driven by national companies building new reactors using Westinghouse AP1000 technology.

Areva in talks for new reactors in China

Dow Jones wire service reports July 6 that French state-owned nuclear giant Areva, which is already building two new nuclear reactors in China, is reportedly negotiating new deals for more reactors. The wire service cited a statement by CEO Anne Lauvergeon right), who made a presentation about the future of the company at an energy conference in France. Areva, like Japan, is struggling to increase its global market share of the nuclear energy business.

Areva and Lauvergeon have been under fire by the government of French President Nicolas Sarkozy over the loss of the UAE contract to South Korea. An energy policy paper, which includes an assessment of the future of the company, is reportedly under wraps, but may be released in the next few weeks according to a July 6 report by the AFP wire service.

The French government is planning to offer a 15% stake in Areva to investors. Mitsubishi and the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar are said to be high on the list of potential buyers. The sale of the shares will raise capital to support Areva’s expansion in global nuclear markets.

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German’s nuclear tax a work in progress

After deciding two years ago this month to keep the nation’s 17 nuclear reactors, the government now sees them as cash cows for the treasury.

In July 2008 German Chancellor Angela Merkel returned from the G8 summit held in Tokyo with a commitment to keep the nation’s 17 reactors in operation rather than shutting them down.

At the time, Merkel said the rationale was using the carbon emission free source of electricity generation to slow the grow of greenhouse gases.

In doing so Merkel challenged the policy of a predecessor government and her coalition with Greens and Social Democrats. It was a risk that paid off because she won re-election in September 2009 in a close vote with future of nuclear energy being one of the key issues.

Two years later her government is using that policy change as a crucial fulcrum for leverage with the nation’s four nuclear utilities telling them unless they accept a tax as a price for keeping the plants open.

The taxes are substantial. The Financial Times reported June 24, the revenue measure could raise as much as euro 2.3 billion a year. RWE and E.on, the two major nuclear utilities, are "furious" with Merkel over the tax proposal. The newspaper said the utilities "feel like sitting ducks."

Dow Jones News Wires reported July 1 German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle said the government supports nuclear reactor life extension. He added that the planned tax on fuel rods will be a trade-off to the utilities in return for permission to run the reactors past 2020.

There are several plausible reasons for Merkel’s quest to tax the reactors.

• Nuclear power plants are easy to tax. You can’t move them around like cars and hide them from the tax collector. Nuclear fuel has built in accountability which reduces the administrative burden to mere bean counting.
• The reactors are paid for so they are cash cows for the utilities. The issue of the tax is not if but how much? Politically, the tax, which might not be allowed to be passed on to ratepayers, will be presented as a "windfalls profits" tax.
• The tax revenue is needed because Germany is offering voters an austerity budget. Any new source of revenue will reduce the kinds of political tensions that erupted in Westphalia in May when voters rejected Merkel’s slate of candidates over austerity measures coupled with financial support for bailing out Greece.
• The tax revenues will bolster her position relative to the Greens and Social Democrats who still press to get rid of the reactors. Merkel can now challenge them to come up with plans to raise other new taxes to replace the revenue that would otherwise come from the nukes. Merkel can paint her opponents into a political corner over reactors as a tax and revenue issue.

German energy policy statement due in September

Reuters reported June 30 that German Energy Group BDEW is pushing back on the tax proposal saying it will cut into investment in new energy generation projects including wind energy along the country’s North Sea coast. The German government is expected to formally roll out its proposed tax policy in two months in an energy policy statement.

BDEW President Rolf Martin Schmitz (right) told Reuters Germany needs (euro)40 billion in new energy generation capacity as well as transmission grids by 2020. He said the nation is running behind on new transmission lines with only 90 km of a planned 850 km built since 2005.

His clear message is that the tax will further retard investment in needed energy infrastructure that is already running way behind schedule. Taxes will cut into cash flow, and with it, new energy investments.

Schmitz said the reactors are needed to meet baseload demand because wind is too variable providing less than half their rated capacity. He said the reactors have a crucial role in reducing CO2 emissions and that Germany will fall short of meeting its goals if the reactors are shut down.

Schmitz serves on the board of directors of RWE, which is one of the four utilities that will see its reactor revenues taxed under the new policy. It’s reasonable to assume that his protests about the taxes on behalf of BDEW’s 1,800 member firms also represents the views of RWE.

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Are investors wary of new nuclear builds?

Bank report says prospects are going south, but consultant says the real name of the game is managing risk

A new report by Citigroup on the prospects for equity investors in the nuclear energy industry casts doubt on prospects for profits.  While the report is focused on Europe, its authors claim their findings have equal weight in the U.S. 

Cited in the July 2010 issue of the EEnergy Informer, published by Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, Ph.D., a utility consultant, he writes Citigroup's report "New Nuclear – the Economics and Politics" says that for every step forward there is another that takes a step back.

Separately, a group of analysts at consulting firm Arthur D. Little say the financing isn't so much the problem as managing the risk with the key emphasis on "management." In a June 2010 report titled "Nuclear New Build Unveiled," the firm reports realistic schedules, and managers who understand the complexities of building new nuclear reactors, are the essential elements of managing risk. The report's authors say that failure mode will follow not paying attention to these issues.

Read all about it exclusively at CoolHandNuke, a nuclear energy jobs portal and a whole lot more. 

 

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Vietnam plans to build 13 reactors by 2030

The government seeks nuclear energy capacity of 15 GWe

The Wall Street Journal reports that Vietnam plans to have 13 nuclear reactors online by 2030 which will account for 10% of the country’s total generation capacity. The announcement came as part of the publication of a development plan signed by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung.

According to the plan, the reactors will be built in eight locations in the central provinces of Ninh Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha Tinh and Quang Ngai. According to the plan, the first two reactors will enter revenue service in 2021.

The government estimates demand for electricity is growing by 16% a year. By 2025 the government plans to have half of the planned nuclear energy capacity online. Currently, about 30% of the country’s electricity comes from hydropower, which has a finite ability to expand to meet growth.

One of the reasons the country is placing its reactor in the central provinces is bauxite, the raw ore of aluminum. An April 2009 report in the Economist indicates View Nam has the world’s third largest reserve of it. Rather than just export a basic commodity to China, Viet Nam wants to move up the value chain and launch an aluminum smelting and manufacturing industry to export finished goods to global markets. Huge amounts of electricity are needed to run the basic aluminum smelters and nuclear reactors can supply it.

China will be the country’s first and largest customer for Vietnam’s aluminum products. Also, it will be the source of mining and engineering expertise to develop the bauxite deposits.

The Chinese do not currently export their nuclear reactor designs to other countries which opens the door to the Russians who aggressively market their designs for export.

Russians to build first two reactors

Vietnam inked a deal last December with Russia’s nuclear energy export agency to build the first two 1,000 MW units. Construction is expected to break ground in 2014. AFP reported June 22 the cost estimate for 2,000 MW is pegged at $8 billion.

Vietnam currently has no nuclear component manufacturing capacity nor a trained nuclear engineering workforce to build the reactors. These gaps mean everything needed for construction of the plants has to be imported by the Russians. The WSJ reported that 30-40% of the construction work will be done by domestic firms.

Nuclear safety developments

Vietnam does not have a mature nuclear safety regulatory body within the government. Vietnam news media reported June 17 that Nikolay Kutin, a Russian nuclear safety expert, said he will lead an effort to strengthen the capabilities of the Vietnam Agency for Radiation and Nuclear Safety and the Vietnam Atomic Energy Institute. Photo: Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (right) welcomes Nikolay Georgievich Kutin in Hanoi on June 17 (Photo: SGGP)

Kutin also said the country must develop its own cadre of nuclear engineers and safety experts to run the plants. He stressed the need to include public access to review of nuclear safety documents, which may be a challenge as the Vietnamese government imposes restrictions on the news media and the Internet.

U.S. prospects depend on diplomacy first then salesmanship

The Financial Times (FT) reported June 18 that Westinghouse and GE-Hitachi had made strong bids to be the first to build reactors in Vietnam. Though they lost that round, the newspaper reported they are in the running for future projects. Before either company can sell reactors to Vietnam, the U.S. must sign a bilateral agreement for nuclear technology exports.

The FT reported that U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Michael Michalak (right) said that such an agreement could be in place by the end of 2010. However, Dr. Ngo Dang Nhan, a Vietnamese government nuclear energy official, complained progress on the agreement was slow going and he said it would hinder the prospects of U.S. firms being able to do business in his country.

The Russians inked their deal with Vietnam, Nhan told the FT, by agreeing to help with nuclear safety after they had a contract to build the reactors. Nhan said the Americans essentially put the cart before the horse with ineffective salesmanship by wanting to set up the regulatory structure first and then offering to build the reactors.

Vietnam’s nuclear energy establishment may have had a predisposition for Russian reactors. While U.S. trade with Vietnam vastly exceeds bilateral trade with Russia, Vietnam remains a socialist country with communist hammer and sickle political orthodoxy retaining a central role in government policy despite its booming market economy and robust commercial relations with the rest of the world.

Prior coverage on this blog

• September 27, 2009 – a small country wants big reactors

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Milestone – the 1,000th blog post

A nuclear energy blog is a work in progress

When this blog started publication more than four years ago, the nuclear renaissance wasn’t going anywhere fast. There was talk that new license applications would come into the NRC, but it would take until late 2007 for NRG to be the first mover with two reactors for the South Texas Project. It was like an Olympic pole vault jump signifying that nuclear energy was on the comeback trail.

The biggest change in four years is, that despite continued opposition by environmental groups, the Obama Administration is awarding loan guarantees for new reactors and pushing for more. Southern is the first utility to agree to accept one. Three more are expected to follow in its footsteps this year.

In the world of realistic expectations, the first-of-a-kind reactor at the OL3 site in Finland is taking more time and costing more, and neither impact was unexpected since no new reactors have been built in nearly three decades. Lessons learned from that project will speed up construction time and lower costs for new reactors worldwide.

Meanwhile, China is building new reactors as fast as a short order cook flips pancakes. Four of them are under construction by Westinghouse, which though owned by Japan’s Toshiba, is responsible for many new American jobs.

Small reactors are popping up with backing from venture capital firms. Designs include well-known light water reactor configurations and new, fast reactors with 14-19% enriched fuel and liquid metal cooling systems.

The front-and-back ends of the fuel cycle are getting attention with four new uranium enrichment plants for the U.S. One of the, Urenoc’s Eunice, NM, facility, has a green light from the NRC to start operations.

There is the possibility of management instead of politics as a paradigm for spent nuclear fuel. The nuclear supply chain is ramping up with new component manufacturing plants being built in Louisiana, Virginia, Ohio, and elsewhere.

Demand for new nuclear engineers has sparked a revival of university programs to produce the graduates needed by industry.

The nuclear energy blogsphere has expanded as well during the past four years.

• See the blog roll in the left panel for a list of nuclear energy blogs and news sources.
• There are more free information services like World Nuclear News and NEI Smartbriefs.
• Nuclear blog news is being aggregated by NuclearStreet and the Energy Collective along with interesting dialog about energy technologies and climate change.
• Social media is having a positive impact on the nuclear industry through instant messages on Twitter, harnessing pop culture on Facebook, and making professional associations on Linkedin and other services.
• Nuclear bloggers are talking to each other and to the industry about how to tell the industry’s story in a way that makes sense to the public.

I’d like to thank the over 100,000 readers a year who read my blog posts here or through syndication. I owe you a lot for your interest, comments, and ideas. It has been an exciting four years. I am looking forward to continued publication of this blog.

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Finland approves plan for two more reactors

The country is serious about energy independence and dealing with climate change

The BBC reports Finland's parliament approved the construction of two new nuclear power stations by a vote of 120-72, which indicates the ruling coalition holds a majority on the issue in the 200 member chamber. The bill was opposed by Green League and the Left Alliance. The vote was briefly delayed due to a crowd of several hundred anti-nuclear demonstrators who entered the building.

The two new units will support the country's objective of achieving energy independence from natural gas supplies from Russia. The government said it expects license applications for the reactors by 2014. The two new units could start-up by 2020. The two new reactors, if built, would bring the total fleet to seven units. Finland has four nuclear units in commercial operation that produce about 30% of its electricity.

Parliament's vote referenced proposals by Finnish utility Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) and by Finland’s Fennovoima Oy to build the two new units. A decision on reactor designs was not on the table. The New York Times reported that the prosposals are for light water reactors to produce 3,200 MW of electricity. According to a report by NucNet, the municipalities of both Simo and Pyhäjoki have said they are willing to host the new plants.

TVO president and chief executive officer Jarmo Tanhua said the vote was “an important milestone towards the EU vision of CO2 neutral energy production”. He added: “Placing greater emphasis on nuclear power and renewable energy sources will help us achieve significant cuts in emissions in electricity production.”

The Bloomberg wire service reported that the government promoted the measure based on its impact on the Finnish economy.

“This is a big step for the Finnish economy,” Economy Minister Mauri Pekkarinen (right) said after the decision. “It is clear stimulus that will help jolt the economy out of the apathy that’s been plaguing Finland and the rest of Europe.”

He told the New York Times there would be no public subsidy for the two new reactors which could cost $10 billion. He said the private sector would handle financing of the project.

Finland also depends on biomass (wood) and hydropower for its energy needs. The country is among Europe’s highest per-capita users of electricity due to bitter arctic cold that sweeps across the country in winter.

OL3 status update

The action in Finland comes as schedule delays and cost over runs for the first-of-a-kind reactor at Olkiluoto-3 (OL3) push the start of revenue service to 2013.

Delays and cost over runs at OL3 have hit hard in Areva’s balance sheet. The firm said June 23 it expects to report a loss for the first half of 2010 and will make a [euro]400 million provision for additional costs associated with the Finnish reactor project.

There was some progress at OL3 with the installation of the reactor pressure vessel on June 21. The 420 ton unit was the first of series of actions to install heavy components of the plant. Areva said in a press release steam generators will be installed by the end of 2010.

Areva’s U.S. plans updated

Meanwhile, Areva CEO Anne Lauvergeon (right) told Forbes Magazine in an interview Areva expects Constellation Energy to get a federal loan guarantee in 2010 for a planned U.S. version of the 1,650 MW EPR reactor at Calvert Cliffs, MD. The project is expected to get an NRC license and break ground in 2012.

She also said the company is serious about a long-shot reactor project in Fesno, CA. The state has a three-decade old ban on new reactors in place, but depends on nuclear energy from reactors in Arizona for electricity to power the southern third of the state. The ban says that as long as there is no solution to dealing with spent nuclear fuel, no new reactors can be built in the state.

Lauvergeon visited the farming region in late March of this year. She said if a reactor is built there, the spent fuel will be taken back to France where it will be recycled thus bypassing the core element of California’s ban on new plants.

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Utah’s Blue Castle Project gets $30 million

New York private investment firm stake in nuclear energy project

Blue Castle Holdings, the developer of a planned nuclear power plant in Green River, Utah, announced an agreement with LeadDog Capital, a specialist in microcap companies, for private equity funding of $30 million in exchange for common stock in the project. 

The IPO has not yet been scheduled by Blue Castle.  LeadDog has previously made investments in biofuels companies.

The funding will be made available to Blue Castle in a series of transactions over a three-year period. 

Aaron Tilton, CEO of Blue Castle, said in a statement the agreement provides “flexible financing that is tied to our licensing schedule.”

NRC licensing schedule

Blue Castle plans to submit an Early Site Permit Application to the NRC in 2011 and a combined construction and operating license application (COL) about 18 months later.  The cost of preparing and paying for NRC review of these actions could easily cost as much as the entire $30 million. 

Blue Castle has not chosen a reactor design.  By the time the firm files a COL in 2012 or 2013, all of the pending reactor design certifications at the NRC for large units will be done. This gives Blue Castle a wide range of choices.  However, given the time it takes to prepare a COL, it is likely Blue Castle is already having exploratory discussions with reactor vendors. 

Seeking investors a share at a time

Tilton has told this blog in prior interviews his plan is to develop a power station with 3,000 MW of power. He’s said elsewhere he has expressions of interest for another 1,500 MW.  Available water supplies in Green River for cooling systems, and economies of scale, suggest a possible tilt toward two of the larger designs rather than three of the smaller units.

Additional financing Tilton has told industry sources, includes selling shares of the new reactors to power utilities in equity stakes of 4-7% of the construction costs. At $3,500/KW, a 3,000 MW power station will cost $10.5 billion making a 3-7% stake worth $315-735 million. 

Blue Castle’s strategy is that by limiting the risk of firms to this level of investment, they are more likely to get them to sign up.  Some investors are also likely to sign power agreements.  Investor interest in the firm will likely ramp up if the firm gets its NRC license.

Tilton said in a statement the firm will “retain a long-term equity position” as a merchant developer of a nuclear power station.

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