Hathor is the exception as a subject of a bidding war by Rio Tinto and Cameco
This is my updated coverage based on a semi-annual look at selected uranium stock prices. This article was published in Fuel Cycle Week V10:N447; October 27, 2011. FCW is a publication of International Nuclear Associates, Washington, DC.
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| The spot price of uranium is at $52/lb |
Uranium juniors and producers on the North American stock exchanges felt the pain last summer as global markets struggled through months of uncertainty about the U.S. budget showdown and the E.U. debt crisis. Generally uranium equity share values rise and fall on the strength of the U3O8 spot price. But recent experience demonstrates that a lot of other market forces are also at work.
According to
Evolution Markets, the U3O8 spot price tumbled from a February 2011 high of $72 per pound to $57 per pound by last May and as of Oct. 24 has held at $52 per pound. That means the spot price dropped 27% in eight months. (
FCW: Stock Table)
With two exceptions, the companies in last May’s FCW stock table have watched their share prices sink 25-45% over the last six months. The losses in market capitalization have outpaced the drop in the price of uranium by 10-20%.
Sensitivity to Market Trends
In an Oct. 4 note to clients,
Dundee Capital Markets uranium analyst David Talbot wrote that general weakness in equity markets was more to blame than spot-price changes. The broader market along with the uranium spot market and uranium equities are all “hypersensitive to any piece of news,” he wrote.
Even before the spot price dropped in response to the events at Fukushima, uranium equities had fallen when rumors circulated about lower Chinese demand, Talbot pointed out, adding that a U.S. Energy Department announcement that it would sell surplus UF6 into the market also put a dent in uranium stocks last February (FCW #415, March 10).
The Toronto Venture Exchange composite index dropped from 13,680 on Feb. 2 to 11,949 on Oct. 2, a decrease of 1,731 points, or 13%. This suggests that small-cap firms in general have seen less volatility than the changes in major capital markets.
By comparison, the S&P 500 stock index dropped 230 points over the same time period, from 1,304 to 1,131 or 17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,999 points, 16% down from 12,807.
Yet uranium equities fared much worse than their peers in the Toronto Venture Exchange. What accounts for that, FCW asked Talbot. The analyst responded that uranium stocks are much more sensitive to shifts in equity markets, as many of them are smaller firms without enough liquidity to buffer them against the hardest knocks.
Also, as concerns mounted about European debt over the summer months, people simply stopped buying stocks. Consequently, each trade had an outsized impact on the movement of the market.
“Smaller firms feel the effects [of these changes] first,”Talbot said.
Low market liquidity creates more volatility and that’s why a 17% drop in major equity markets results in a 25-45% drop in the price of uranium juniors. Uranium developers and miners may not see relief for some time, according to an Oct. 18 Wall Street Journal report. Big investors bent on reducing their exposure to risk are going to be more reluctant to step into trades.
UEC Preserves Liquidity, Holds Back Sales
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| UEC is holding on to its yellowcake |
Uranium Energy (
AMEX:UEC) is a notable exception. Its stock price stayed exactly where it was last May at $3.24 per share. It is the only firm in the FCW stock table, besides Hathor, that did not see a rapid drop in its stock price in the past six months.
One issue the company does not face is scant liquidity. According to its SEC 10-K filing, cash on hand is $30.7 million as of the end of the firm’s fiscal year on July 31, compared to 21.1 million in 2010. The filing also shows that the firm has pursued no uranium sales. Financial losses have piled up nearly doubling from $14.5 million in 2010 to $27.4 million in 2011.
“During the fourth quarter [of FY 2011, ended July 31] only the second full quarter of Palangana Mine production, the company produced 83,000 pounds of U3O8 in inventory, including work-in-progress, as compared with 49,000 pounds in the previous quarter.
Since commencement of production in November 2010 through to July 31, 2011, the company has produced a total of 153,000 pound of U3O8 at a cash operating expense of approximately $13 per pound,” the company’s fourth-quarter report said.
Why hold back sales, FCW asked Stephanie Makagon, UEC’s investor-relations spokeswoman, when UEC has contracts to sell 300,000 pounds over the next three years with the first transaction by the end of 2011? “We are waiting for the right price to sell,” said Makagon.
The firm is expecting a radioactive materials license from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for the Goliad project. The Environmental Protection Agency must concur with a state action that exempts the underground aquifer for the purpose of uranium recovery operations.
Update 11/12/11
Uranium Energy Corp announced the completion of its first uranium sale which will be reflected in the Company’s upcoming Fiscal 2012 Q1 report. A total of 60,000 pounds of U3O8 were sold for $52 per pound for gross proceeds of $3.12 million under the terms of the multi-year uranium sales contract as originally announced on June 14, 2011.
This contract calls for the delivery of 300,000 pounds of U3O8 from the Company’s Hobson processing facility over a three-year period starting in Fiscal 2012, with the price to be based on published market price indicators at the time of delivery.
Hathor Awaiting Acquisition-Bid Outcome

The other exception to falling stock prices is Hathor (
TSX: HAT). Its stock price has soared from C$2.28/share last May to C$4.50 at market close on Oct 24. It is now trading at a 52-week high as a result of a competitive bid by Rio Tinto in response to a low ball, all-cash offer of C$3.75 per share from Cameco on Aug 25 (FCW #446, Oct. 20).
Based on resource estimates for Hathor’s Roughrider project, Hathor considers the Cameco offer “predatory and opportunistic.” In a
presentation posted on its website Hathor acknowledges that the depressed uranium price makes its Roughrider deposit a bargain. Still, the firm argues, prices will rebound making the deposit’s long-term worth much more than Cameco is offering for it.
On Sept.14 Hathor’s board rejected Cameco’s offer because, it said, “it does not offer full value” to investors. Hathor added in a long list of objections that “Cameco can and should pay more.”
Cameco responded in an Oct. 17 statement that despite two months of “just say no” statements from Hathor, no other investor has come forward with a better offer, in effect saying that if Cameco’s offer was indeed undervalued, someone else would have fielded a better offer.
Two days later Rio Tinto rode into town on a white horse with an offer of C$4.15 per share. In an Oct. 19 press statement Hathor’s board unanimously recommended that shareholders accept the Rio Tinto bid.
The stock price situation so far this week has indicated that some investors may think even the Rio Tinto bid is too low. Hathor’s share price rode up to a new 52-week high of C$4.50 per share, or 8.4% higher than the price the Hathor board had endorsed. Neither Hathor nor Cameco is talking to the media.
While no one knows who the ultimate buyer of Hathor will be, it is clear that uranium equities are not dead yet, despite the Fukushima downer. Investors must believe on some level that global nuclear energy markets will expand in time.
China is chasing deals for uranium to lock up supplies for decades, with plans for more than two dozen new reactors to be built by 2030. The U.K. is moving ahead with plans for 19 GWe of new reactor construction, and if India can extract its nuclear new build from the clutches of opposition parties, there will be progress there as well.
Hathor’s Roughrider deposit is estimated to hold 17 million pound U3O8 indicated resources and 41 million pounds inferred resources. It is less than 20 miles from Cameco’s Rabbit Lake uranium mill. That mill will likely have capacity for toll milling since Cameco recently announced it would move all its Cigar Lake ore at its McLean Lake mill.
This makes the synergies in a Cameco-Hathor tie-up very strong, leading Talbot to release a note on Oct 26 predicting that the big producer will pony up for a higher bid. So far they haven't done so.
In
briefings Nov 9 with analysts, Cameco would only say it had extended its $C3.75 a share offer until November 14 and the market would be hearing from it "in due course." Foreign ownership rules in Canada may force Hathor, Rio Tinto, and Cameco to agree on a three way deal.
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